Stocks Futures: What's Actually Happening

Market's Pre-Thanksgiving Pop: A Data-Driven Illusion?

Monday morning, November 24, 2025. The market tried to put on a brave face, a fleeting smile before the Thanksgiving feast. Futures across the board climbed: Dow Jones Industrial Average futures edged up 124 points, or 0.38%, with the S&P 500 futures gaining 0.68%, and the Nasdaq-100 leading the pack with a 0.94% increase. It looked like a rebound, a much-needed breath of fresh air after weeks of watching the air slowly leak out of this year’s AI bull run. But as any analyst worth their salt knows, an uptick in futures before a holiday-shortened week (the market's off Thursday, then an early close Friday) is hardly a definitive trend. It’s a glimmer, perhaps, but a glimmer often refracts light from an entirely different source than what’s immediately apparent.

What’s truly driving this tentative optimism, this pre-holiday cheer? Look no further than the Federal Reserve. Futures markets are now assigning almost a 70% probability—69.5% to be precise, up sharply from 44% just a week ago—that the Fed will trim rates by a quarter point at its December 10 meeting. The benchmark rate currently sits between 3.75% and 4.00% (a range I've been tracking closely, as its upper bound often signals the real pressure point for borrowing costs). This surge in rate-cut speculation follows New York Federal Reserve President John Williams' recent comments, where he vaguely left the door open to such a move, describing monetary policy as "modestly restrictive" and hinting at "further adjustment." It’s a classic Fed tightrope walk: say just enough to calm the horses without actually committing to anything. The market, ever the optimist, heard "rate cut" and ran with it.

The Data Black Hole and Market Blind Spots

But here’s where my analysis starts to diverge from the prevailing narrative. This newfound market enthusiasm is built on a foundation that feels less like solid rock and more like shifting sand. We're heading into a week with key macro data points like October U.S. retail sales and October Producer Price Index data due out on Tuesday. These are crucial inputs, the very metrics the Fed claims to be watching. Yet, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has decided to scrap the release of October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) entirely, and push November’s CPI report—originally slated for December 10, the same day as the Fed meeting—to December 18.

Now, I've looked at hundreds of these data releases, and this particular shuffling of the deck is unusual. It’s not just an inconvenience; it’s a methodological critique waiting to happen. How can the market, or indeed the Fed, make an informed decision about interest rates when key inflation data is either missing or deliberately delayed until after the critical policy meeting? It's like trying to navigate a dense fog with a faulty compass, yet everyone's convinced they know the destination. This isn't just "noise," as Siebert Financial CIO Mark Malek put it; it's a deliberate obfuscation of the very information required for rational assessment. Investors hate noise, yes, but they absolutely detest being deliberately kept in the dark. Malek's observation that "the market simply cannot deliver that [certainty] right now" feels like an understatement when the data itself is being held hostage.

The market, in its desperation for direction, is behaving like a parched traveler in the desert, seeing a shimmering oasis that may well be a mirage. The recent performance paints a stark picture of this thirst. The S&P 500 slipped 2% last week, bringing its November decline to 3.5%. The Nasdaq Composite shed 2.7% in the prior week and is down a more substantial 6.1% for the month. Even the old-guard Dow fell 1.9% last week, off 2.8% month-to-date. These aren't minor corrections; these are significant pulls back that "knocked the air out" of the AI-fueled rally we saw earlier in the year.

Are We Chasing Ghosts or Genuine Growth?

So, what are we really looking at here? Is this Monday morning rally a genuine sign of a market finding its footing, or merely a speculative surge, a collective sigh of relief based on incomplete information and hopeful interpretation of central bank tea leaves? My analysis suggests the latter. The market is clinging to the idea of a rate cut because it desperately needs a catalyst, any catalyst, to arrest the recent slide. But the very data that would justify such a cut—or indeed, argue against it—is being withheld.

This raises some uncomfortable questions. What is the Fed really trying to signal by delaying CPI data until after their meeting? Are they reacting to the data, or are they attempting to manage market perception of the data's impact on their decisions? And if investors are grappling with "shaky government economic data," how much confidence should we place in a rally predicated on a future Fed move that may not be supported by the full economic picture? The current market dynamic feels less like an informed decision and more like a high-stakes gamble on incomplete information. Traders, leaning into their screens in the pre-market hours, are making bets based on shadows, not substance.

A Risky Bet on Ambiguity

The market's current trajectory is a testament to its craving for certainty, even if that certainty is an illusion. The pre-Thanksgiving bounce is less about robust economic fundamentals and more about the market latching onto the slimmest possibility of monetary easing. It’s a risky bet, fueled by delayed data and the Fed’s carefully crafted ambiguity. We’re not out of the woods yet; in fact, without transparent data, we might just be wandering deeper into the fog.